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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
Some interesting games to look forward to in the Euro Qualifiers week 46. I’ve previewed two of the ones I think we can find some betting value in.
Goal Scorer!
Armenia v Wales
Regular readers will be aware of the fact that I’m an Ipswich Town supporter, which comes into play in my first betting pick of the Euro Qualifiers.
There’s a decent chance that this bet will be voided before a ball even has been kicked, because I’m going for a goalscorer. Nathan Broadhead has been pivotal to Ipswich Town’s success in the last 11 months, notching 8 goals in 19 League One fixtures (and 5 assists), helping Town win promotion to the Championship, and then following that up by scoring 6 goals in 13 appearances thus far in the league above. He hasn’t been as prolific for Wales when on international duty, but two goals from 7 apps (whereas only two have been starts), is a great return for a player who plays in the “10 position”, just behind the striker(s).
Broadhead has an outstanding shooting technique and an ability to pop up in the right place at the right time. He’s clinical and a livewire, meaning he’s active and a constant threat for opponents. I don’t necessarily think he’ll start against Armenia, but if he does, 3.50 for him to score a goal must be a great bet.
Armenia must win this game to have hope of qualifying, so I’d be very surprised to see a cagey affair with two risk averse teams. Wales will also be well aware of their own situation, knowing that a win here will take them a great length towards the Euro’s next summer.
If Broadhead doesn’t start the game, our stake is refunded.
Typically Corner Heavy
France v Gibraltar
1.01 on a France win says it all. This will not be the most exciting game of the qualifiers, but from a neutral perspective, I do think there’s something to it which intrigues me. France have a goal difference of 13-1, having only conceded one goal in the last game against Netherlands. Gibraltar have, not unsurprisingly at all, not scored a goal yet, and have let 21 in at the other end.
It shouldn’t be anything other than a simple home win. Betting on France at the incredibly short price of 1.01 is clearly pointless, so exploring the handicap lines would be the way to go here. -5.5 (asian handicap) means we need France to beat Gibraltar by six goals or more, at the odds of 2.00. This is no impossible task, but generally a bet that I’m not that keen on in a game that “doesn’t matter” for any of the teams. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rotated France team tonight before a tougher test against Greece on Tuesday.
The way I’m going with this is by taking corners. If my team prediction for France is correct (that they rotate a bit), I’m thinking that new and hungry players will come in with a point to prove. In a game where you’re expected to score six or more goals, the attacking players will lick their lips at the thought of “stat padding” against a poor team. France will attack in an attempt to score countless goals (for the sake of this bet, I hope so!) and in that process rack up on their corner numbers as well.
Gibraltar usually concede 12+ corners when they play stronger teams. They defend really narrow and are happy to defend set pieces instead of open-play situations, which illuminates the gulf in class in comparison to an aerial duel. I think we have some value on over 12.5 corner kicks at 1.84.
That concludes my betting picks for the Euro Qualifiers week 46. See you again soon!
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