Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
I love the FA Cup 1st round a lot, followed by the 3rd one. This is the stage where all the big guns enter – Premier League and Championship teams – and come up against some of the smaller clubs in League Two and in non-league. Here are my betting tips for FA Cup round 3.
A League Above
Manchester City v Huddersfield Town
It’s not a gigantic surprise to see Man City priced as low as 1.04 when they take on Championship strugglers Huddersfield Town. But is it possible to find some value in a game like this? I will try to find out.
The biggest and most important factor to figure out is how the respective teams will treat the competition:
The first thing I’m looking for is logical prioritisation. How is the team doing in the league, and can they afford a cup run – which will see the game load increase on the squad, which can take its toll in terms of league form. Sometimes a good cup run can rejuvenate the players and the fanbase. It works both ways.
The second thing is injuries. If a team has been plagued with injuries, it’s not likely to see them risk any first team players in a cup game.
The third factor is FA Cup history, and their current manager’s perception of the competition. Certain teams have a history of going places in the cup, where the fans have expectations of that to occur again.
So, over to this game. I don’t think Huddersfield Town – with a smaller budget than many competitors in the Championship – can afford to be relegated to League One. They are just above the relegation zone in the second tier, and know that their chances of beating City are slim at best. In any case, getting tonked 9-0 is too humiliating to risk. I don’t really think their manager Darren Moore cares that much about the result here, but the perception from the media and the fans will not be favourable if they end up on the wrong end of a bad scoreline.
Bearing in mind that City have Champions League and a lot of important games in the league to focus on, I can see them rotate quite a bit here – just enough to see them through, without risking the most important players who have played a lot lately.
I can see City score one or two quite early goals, and just cruise the game through. Huddersfield haven’t really offered much of an offensive spark this season, so going for under 4.5 goals at around 1.60 can be worth looking at. I’m not picking anything here – at least not until I see the teams.
Prioritising The League
QPR v Bournemouth
QPR are not going well in the Championship, and can’t afford to lose more games to risk getting relegated out of the league. Their squad is thin, and there are rumours surrounding the club that they are likely to sell their star player Ilias Chair in order to raise funds for other new signings.
Bournemouth are doing perfectly fine on their own, and are blessed to be in a position where they can go for the cup and achieve something special. Against Spurs on Sunday their bench consisted of Max Aarons, Philip Billing, Antoine Semenyo, Alex Scott, David Brooks, Kieffer Moore, Joe Rothwell, Charlie Mepham og goalie Max Travers. I’m pretty sure that it’s a significantly stronger squad than QPR’s, even if they rotate and the R’s don’t.
I want to bet on Bournemouth here this FA Cup round 3: -1 (asian handicap) at 1.97 is my pick.
Goals, Please
Stoke City v Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton keep on playing and playing and playing and playing. There’s no rest for De Zerbi’s boys, and now they have a tough FA Cup 3rd round game against “high flying” Stoke City on the horizon.
I watched Stoke City v Ipswich Town on Monday afternoon, in a game in which Stoke produced some decent opportunities and probably should have scored a goal. We know how open Brighton can be – and are – and that they are the only team in the EPL yet to keep a clean sheet.
Stoke are probably safe from relegation, so I think Steven Schumacher will see this as a game that is there for the taking. I want to get on goals.
Conclusion
Here are my best bets for FA Cup round 3:
- Stoke City v Brighton & Hove Albion. Over 3 goals (asian) @ 1.96.
- QPR v Bournemouth. Bournemouth -1 (asian) @ 1.97.