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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

Yes! It’s finally here again. I will keep writing my weekly League One match previews throughout the season, and this year I’ve even concocted a little outrights betting preview. These are my League One outrights betting picks for the 23/24 season!

The Way I’m Going About It

I will use a model I’ve called the traffic lights model:

• Green light: you have a chance of going up.
• Amber light: you aren’t good enough for promotion, but probably not bad enough for relegation.
• Red light: I think you are in danger of going down.

Green Light Teams:
Derby County, Peterborough United, Wycombe Wanderers, Barnsley, Bristol Rovers, Blackpool, Lincoln City, Burton Albion, Oxford United, Bolton Wanderers, Portsmouth, Charlton Athletic.

Amber Light Teams:
Nobody!!

Red Light Teams:
Cheltenham Town, Shrewsbury Town, Fleetwood Town, Port Vale, Stevenage, Carlisle United, Wigan Athletic, Northampton Town, Reading, Leyton Orient.

Promotion

This is the green light category, where I’ll consider the teams I listed earlier. Following Ipswich Town and Sheffield Wednesday’s promotions to the Championship, League One are a couple of giant teams poorer. This could be great news for a couple of these clubs, who I think are ripe for a promotion push.

As you can see, there’s a lot of teams in the green category, 12 in total. That means that over half the league has an OK chance of going up. My favourites are Derby, Bolton, Portsmouth and Oxford, although Unibet slightly disagree. 

Derby County

Derby have a very experienced manager in charge and have signed several experienced players in the summer. James Collins, Martyn Waghorn and Conor Washington are three great strikers, while David McGoldrick will be a miss. They have tightened up at the back and shouldn’t lose many games this year. They are the market’s favourite, as well as mine.

Oxford United

This will be my heaviest bet of the season. I really like Liam Manning as a manager and what they’ve done in the summer. Ruben Rodriguez, Mark Harris, Josh McEachran, Fin Stevens and Jordan Thorniley are all very decent signings at this level, and I don’t think they’ve lost anyone of significance either. Their final pre-season game was a 5-0 thumping of QPR, and with their defensive solidity from last year with a couple of key attacking additions in the summer, I think Oxford United will finish in the top 6 this season.

Portsmouth

Another team with a manager that I really like. They improved after John Mousinho took charge in January, and Pompey should always challenge while being in League One. Jack Sparkes, Christian Saydee and Regan Poole are three players that I like, and with Colby Bishop, they should be nailed on for a top 10 finish. I think they can, should and will challenge higher up the table.

Bolton Wanderers

Three of my four teams have young managers in charge. In one way, I worry a bit for Bolton after losing some key players in the summer – especially goalie James Trafford, who has signed for Burnley. My faith in them is strong, though, because of Ian Evatt (their manager) and their style of play being very clear and nailed down. The players know the style, the principles and the demands of the management, so I can’t see a season where standards drop, although some players have left. 

A Dark Horse?

I want to give Lincoln City, Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers a shout-out here. I think all three of them have some of the tools to challenge for a top 6 spot, although things have to go their way. Burton Albion have some top names in their team, a “horrible” style (i.e. difficult to play against) and a strong home advantage. Lincoln City are so tight at the back and should be a bit more threatening now that they’ve signed Reeco Hackett and Tyler Walker. Bristol Rovers have also signed names – just like Burton – and should be stronger than last year. Jevani Brown, James Wilson, Luke Thomas and George Friend should be four decent additions for Rovers in League One.

My Promotion Bets

• Derby County top 2 @ 3.20
• Derby County promoted @ 2.65
• Oxford United winner @ 21.00
• Oxford United top 2 @ 8.00
• Oxford United top 6 @ 3.25
• Bristol Rovers top 6 @ 4.33
• Burton Albion top 6 @ 7.00
• Burton Albion promoted @ 15.00
• Lincoln City top 6 @ 4.33

Relegation

I follow the league closely and had a profit last year, but I actually picked MK Dons for a top 6 finish, who eventually were relegated. In reality, anyone might very well go down. Here are my strongest picks for a relegation spot.

Shrewsbury Town

I have really liked Shrewsbury under Steve Cotterill over the years, but now the pragmatic Cheltenham man has left the club. He’s not the only one who’s left the building… Alongside him (of note), Christian Saydee (Portsmouth), Elliott Bennett (released), Rekeil Pyke (Grimsby), Matt Pennington (Blackpool), Luke Leahy (Wycombe) and Tom Bloxham (Morecambe on loan) have all departed. Taylor Moore played a lot last year and has now gone back to Bristol City after his loan expired. There are also plenty of players who are out of contract after the season ends, so insecurity/rebuild (call it what you want!) is on the cards at Shrews. Matt Taylor is a very inexperienced manager, and I think their honeymoon period is over, unfortunately.

Port Vale

I thought Port Vale were impressive last year and showed glimpses of a good League One standard. However, sacking Darrell Clarke in April was a big shock to many, but it eventually turned out to be an alright decision in the short term, staying up without breaking much of a sweat. Andy Crosby is a bold appointment, and I don’t know him well enough to say that it’s either wise or foolish. Their recruitment is interesting. Signing 10 players (and we’ve just entered August) is a lot, and star man Will Forrester has left for Bolton. James Wilson was a focal point for them, and he’s also left. I don’t necessarily think they’ll go down, but them and Shrews are the only very interesting bets that I could find in the relegation area. I haven’t watched enough of the newly promoted teams to say for sure.

If Things Go Really Bad?

You lot love a longshot, don’t you? Here’s one for my League One outrights betting picks! Wycombe Wanderers had a stinker of a winter after losing manager Gareth Ainsworth to QPR. They are 10 to get relegated now. Obviously, they probably won’t, but they aren’t a huge club at this level with any divine right to be in League One year after year. 

My Relegation Bets

• Cheltenham Town relegated @ 2.75
• Port Vale relegated @ 4.00
• Shrewsbury Town relegated @ 3.75
• Reading relegated @ 6.00
• Wycombe Wanderers relegated @ 10.00

Top scorer? 

As a special feature of my League One outrights betting picks, I want to shortly reflect on my pick for the top scorer this season. I’ve watched quite a lot of Derby County’s pre-season games (highlights, at least), and I think James Collins will be a handful for a lot of the teams. Joe Ward’s arrival and whipping crosses from the right should give him plenty of chances, and in my opinion he’s better off without McGoldrick, who has left for Notts County in League Two. No odds on this as of yet, but that’s my pick anyway.

That concludes my League One outrights betting picks for the 23/24 season. Weekly updates with betting picks will roll out throughout the season, so make sure you follow it and obviously, please gamble responsibly. 

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