
Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
More League One football on the menu. Here are my two best betting picks ahead of League One round 22, in a round that I found really difficult. Only one team (Derby County) are priced below 1.60, which says a lot about how close and tight the league is.
Probably Value
Bolton Wanderers v Bristol Rovers
This is a game that could be quite straight-forward betting wise, but also a bit of a tricky encounter to call. I think I’ve found something interesting.
Bolton have scored 37 goals in their 19 games, while Rovers have netted 25 times. Decent numbers for the hosts; not so much for the away team, who are finding their feet under new boss Matt Taylor. Ian Evatt’s Bolton have been really strong defensively for a long time, and it’s a bit surprising, considering how much of a force they are going forward. They attack with several bodies, take shots and play a “high risk” game with trusting their goalkeeper with the ball at his feet. I think the fundamental philosophy is to attack.
It’s always interesting to see what kind of difference a new manager brings to a team. Matt Taylor has inherited an offensive team, and he is also offensive minded at his core. His first league game in charge ended in a 1-1 – against Cheltenham Town, and their two other results during his reign have been 2-1 (defeat) and a 4-2 win.
I think we’ll see goals here. Both sides have quality in the attacking areas, and are better with the ball than without it. Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 is my pick here.
Careful – At Least To Begin With
Shrewsbury Town v Portsmouth
Table topping Portsmouth are going away to Shrewsbury Town next, after beating fellow top team Bolton on Monday. I think they’ll struggle to break Shrews down.
That’s the whole reasoning for my bet. Shrews are sitting 11th with 27 points from their 21 games, but have only scored 13 goals. Their xG is 16.5, so they have underperformed it slightly. However, the numbers are grim.
If we look at the 1st half stats for both teams, it’s interesting to see that Shrewsbury are the League One team who most often draw at half time, but then end up losing (four times). Seven home games have been a draw at half time, while 8/20 Pompey games have.
Shrewsbury’s 1st half goal difference is 6-9; at home it’s even “worse”: 4-2. Portsmouth’s is 18-8, so they start games well. Away from home they’ve only conceded three goals in the first halves, while they’ve scored twelve. John Mosinhou’s men have only shipped six goals in nine away games, which is a great return for any team.
Conclusion
These are my bets for League One round 22:
- Shrewsbury v Portsmouth. Under 0.5 goals in the 1st half @ 2.80.
- Bolton v Bristol Rovers. Over 2.5 goals @ 1.79.