Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
Following a frenetic Christmas schedule, League One is back to its regular “frequency”, with a game every weekend. Here are my betting thoughts ahead of League One round 28.
Monday Night Midlands Football
Derby County v Burton Albion
It’s probably the juiciest game of them all this League One round 28, and it’s under the lights on Monday night. The Rams of Derby County host fellow East Midlands side Burton Albion.
I betted “against” Derby in my last League One preview, where I picked Peterborough United to score over 1.5 goals against them at 3.00. It was a winner, as Posh came back to win the game 3-2 in stoppage time. Derby are now, if we include the Trophy game against Bradford in midweek, in a run of form where they’ve lost two out of their last three games. However, their overall form is brilliant, and I thought they were in complete control against Fleetwood Town on Saturday.
I’ve not been very impressed by what I’ve seen from Burton this year. Their caretaker manager has set them up to play a very defensive style of football, which has worked out quite well. They aren’t as easy to score against as they were under Dino Maamria, but it’s been over a month since they scored two goals in a game of football.
I think Derby games at Pride Park are terrific for corners. If we get the scenario that I predict – that County will find it difficult to break down a defensively minded counter-attacking team – then corners should follow. I’m very happy to take over 9.5 corners at 1.73.
Oxford On The Rise
Carlisle United v Oxford United
Des Buckingham’s start as Oxford United boss hasn’t been the greatest. But in spite of that, I still think they’re a competitive side in this league and that they’ll be in the play-offs in four months or so.
Carlisle United were at Exeter City last week and were quite bad, I thought. They created some half-chances, but the possession stats were overwhelmingly in favour of the home team. Very disappointing from Paul Simpson’s perspective, who were visibly downbeat after his team failed to create any meaningful momentum before they were 2-0 down.
I can’t see them beating Oxford, who have improved their squad this week by bringing in tricky forward player Tyler Burey and goalkeeper Jamie Cummings. My bet in this game is that Oxford will beat their fellow United side. 2.05 is just tempting enough for me to take, although betting on away teams is risky in the football league.
A Rare Goal Line
Bolton Wanderers v Cheltenham Town
I don’t often see the goal line at 2.75 in League One. It’s typically at 2.5 or 2.25, but seldom at 2.75. That means that it’s where the odds are closest to being 50/50, and I think we might have some value on going under here.
I have betted on Bolton games to go over previously, but for me, betting is all about identifying value and capitalising on it.
Last season, Bolton were the team who averaged the least amount of goals in their home games (including the ones they conceded), which is a bit of a surprise. This season, however, the trend is completely opposite. 10/13 home games have gone over 2.5 goals, and the average number of goals per game is at 3.5. Only four out of Cheltenham’s 12 away games have seen three goals or more, and I trust Darrell Clarke’s team to make this competitive and tight for a good while.
Bolton also come directly from a tough game in the cup away at Accrington, which might make this fixture a bit slower than if they’d been completely rested.
I’m taking under 2.75 goals at 1.83, which means that we get a half loss if there’s exactly three goals.
Conclusion
Three bets in League One round 28 this weekend.
- Derby v Burton. Over 9.5 corners @ 1.73.
- Bolton v Cheltenham. Under 2.75 goals @ 1.83.
- Carlisle v Oxford. Oxford win @ 2.05.