Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
More Christmas football on the way, as Premier League round 20 is next up. Here is my preview of two of the games – the only ones on New Years Eve(!) – where I think I’ve found good value.
Gunners Looking To Respond
Fulham v Arsenal
I watched Arsenal’s home game against West Ham with a keen eye. The Gunners pushed, pressed and pushed some more, but eventually ended up on the wrong side of a 2-0 result at the Emirates.
They will want to respond in style and get back on winning ways when another London derby awaits. Fulham at Craven Cottage is probably not the easiest game in the league, but probably a great opportunity for Arteta’s boys to put things right again.
My first thought when I looked at the odds in this game is that Arsenal are slightly overpriced; meaning that we have value betting on them at 1.60. These prices fluctuate quickly, and I do feel confident in saying that the price for an away win here shouldn’t be much lower than 1.50. Many of the Arsenal players looked tired and depleted towards the end of the West Ham game, but a player like Kai Havertz will return fresh after a one game suspension.
The bad news for Arsenal is that Fulham will have had two extra days of rest, which is a huge advantage in such a congested fixture schedule. Fortunately for Arsenal, they are used to it with European football in addition to the domestic games.
Fulham are a bit of a mystery to me, where their numbers and performances aren’t that great, but results have been quite good. However, I want to side with Arsenal here: 1.60 is high enough for me to take.
Down To The Bare Bones
Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth
I also watched Spurs’ away game at Brighton & Hove Albion, where I thought they – similarly to Arsenal at the end – looked really tired and depleted. Now they host a hungry and energetic Bournemouth side next, which will be a tricky game for Postecoglou’s men.
One of my main betting strategies throughout the year is to capitalise on periods like this, where some teams (or all of them) play a lot of games in a short space of time. I would love to have numbers backing this up, but my impression from watching a lot of football throughout my life is that games towards the end of a hectic schedule tend to be slower and “deader”.
Postecoglou himself even said that his players looked really tired, and that’s not strange, to put it that way, bearing in mind that they currently have ten players out and unavailable.
Both of these teams are on my shortlist for “overs” when it comes to the shot markets (meaning that there usually are a lot of shots both ways in the teams’ matches), and that’s exactly why I think we’ve found value here. The numbers suggest that this should be frenetic and with a lot of goalmouth action, but the demanding schedule gives me confidence that it will be a bit slower and controlled than if both had entered the game off the back of a week’s “rest”. Under 31.5 shots is now priced at 1.78, which surely is value. The average number of shots per game in the EPL is around 24, so it’s clearly a high line for any game.
Conclusion
I like both of my bets for Premier League round 20. Arsenal have a point to prove after a disappointing result against West Ham United, and Spurs don’t have the energy to play their usual high-octane football.