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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

I’m here, you’re here. We’re all here for the weekly betting blog for the Premier League, which I’m extra excited about this week! Here are my betting picks for Premier League Round 3.

Value On The Under
Brighton & Hove Albion v West Ham United

Both of these teams have had a very good start to their Premier League campaign. It should be fair to say that Brighton’s expectations probably were a bit muted after losing a lot of key players over the summer, but the way they have responded has been phenomenal. Not beating Luton in the opening game would have seen alarm bells go off. The three points there was just what the doctor ordered, but going away to Wolves, playing them off the park for periods of the game and continuing in the De Zerbi trail that us PL neutrals have had a lot of joy watching, was an important confirmation of where they (still) stand as a team and as a club.

West Ham now go to the south coast to maintain their flying start to the season, picking up four points in two tricky games. They looked comfortable sitting back and hitting Chelsea on the break, and the same plan will surely be applied on Saturday night. However, in contrast to these two teams’ games so far, I don’t expect it to be as entertaining and open when they clash. Betting is all about value, so picking under 2.5 goals at 2.70 is my selection in this one. It just seems way higher than it should be. Unibet is leading the way in the market on this pick, which is worth mentioning.

Open Game
Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur

I’m very curious about this game. Two very offensive teams who go out of their own way to play on the front foot and create chances; that’s often a good recipe for entertainment. 

Bearing in mind that both new managers have had two (positive!) games in charge so far, we have a small, but still useful, sample size to make judgements off. I expect more of the same when they go toe to toe in Bournemouth, making it a game for the neutrals who want to enjoy their Saturday with football on the telly. Bissouma, Kulusevski and Maddison all stood out against Man United for me, so I would be fairly surprised to see a drop off in form against weaker opposition. Bournemouth were brave against Liverpool and will get chances at home. 

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is my best bet here, although I also think there’s value on over three goals at 1.92.

Overrated Bees
Brentford v Crystal Palace

Two teams that I thought could struggle a bit more than the market expected this year. So far, I think Brentford have proved me wrong, while Palace have had two strange games; the first, where they definitely impressed and were good, and the second, where it panned out like expected and Arsenal eventually went on to win by a goal to nil. Ivan Toney’s absence has not bothered Brentford at all – so far. I think “so far” are the key words here, because we’re yet to see them perform over a longer stretch of time. Wissa and Mbeumo have filled the gap in decent fashion, but he’s a talisman with unique attributes in comparison to both of them.

I think Brentford will survive – as will probably Palace – but I do think that they are slightly overrated in the betting market ahead of this London derby. I don’t necessarily think that Palace will smash them, by any stretch of the imagination, but I can make a case for Brentford’s winning chances being shorter than 50 percent, which the market currently offers with odds of 2.00-2.10. 

I’m picking Palace not to lose at the GTech, at the decent price OF 1.83. But… I actually like the odds of a draw even better: 3.50.

Conclusion

Here are my picks for Premier League Round 3:

• Brentford-Palace. Draw @ 3.50.
• Brighton-West Ham. Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70.
• Bournemouth-Spurs. Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals @ 1.80.

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