
Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
A few enticing Premier League games on the horizon this weekend. Let’s get to it and see if we can find some value picks in this Premier League round 21.
Still Leggy, Magpies?
Newcastle United v Manchester City
Newcastle United have looked ridiculously tired and leggy in recent weeks. It’s no wonder when you consider the amount of games they’ve played, but it’s definitely a worry for Eddie Howe that his boys have already lost four more games than they did during the entirety of last campaign.
I fancy City to start a run of games and win, win, win and win – probably quite soon. Going away at St. James’ Park is clearly not the easiest task, but they face a team who aren’t in the best place at the moment. Some key players are on their way back from injury absences, which will strengthen them a lot.
Newcastle were in complete control over Sunderland and couldn’t have been more comfortable in a local derby. I think it must have come as a great relief for Eddie Howe and his coaching staff, who would have found themselves under a lot of pressure with a bad result away against their bitter rivals.
It’s too early to write either of these two teams off, although City’s record this season is their worst under Pep Guardiola. I’ve seen enough from them to be convinced of a good recovery, but a lot hinges on the injury situation of key players. If they are all ready and in a good space, I fancy them to beat Newcastle. If not, and with a whole week’s rest for the Magpies, I fancy the home team to get a good result with backing from their fans. My bet in this game is Newcastle over 3.5 corners at 1.75, which is a bet I just have to take in a game at St. James’ Park.
Easy Winner, Hopefully
Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
There are some absolutely mouthwatering ties this weekend in Premier League round 21, and this is surely the one to top it all off on Sunday afternoon.
The only “easy winners” in betting are when the likes of Real Madrid play an 8th tier team, which they never do. And if they do, the odds reflect their winning probability. It’s always a value consideration, meaning that you have to think that the true probability of something occurring is greater than the odds suggests. I think we have that here, which I will return to in a second.
Most decent punters know that the betting market more or less gets things right most of the time. When the goal line in this game is at 3.5, we know that we’re probably in for an entertaining encounter between two attack-minded teams with a willingness to create chances, and who are happy to concede something as a cost for that.
I agree wholeheartedly in that, and think that we have a very end to end football match to look forward to. Both teams are good in transition and when their attackers have space to attack. And if that’s the starting point – where both thrive in a climate where it’s end to end – then there’s not much reason why it should go any other way. Of course, some games of a similar magnitude (where top teams play each other) can be a bit more cagey than you’d expect, but I’d be surprised to see that here.
Initially I wanted to bet on under 11.5 corners, which is a very high line for a Premier League game. But the more I looked at it, the more I liked Dejan Kulusevski to have over 0.5 shots on target, at the sexy price of 1.79. He’s been encouraged to shoot more, and he himself has said that he wants to get more shots off. The worst thing for this bet is that he plays on the left, which he’s done recently. His numbers are good, with an average of 1.8 shots per game, where 0.8 hits the target. In a game where it’s a bit open and end to end, I fancy him to get in better positions to find the target at least once. That’s my main bet of the weekend, and I’ll be boggled to see it lose.
Conclusion
Here are my picks in Premier League round 21.
- Man United v Spurs. Kulusevski over 0.5 shots on target @ 1.79.
- Newcastle v Man City. Newcastle over 3.5 corners @ 1.75.